By Mike Schuler

August 14, 2025

Photo: Shutterstock/Strikernia

Drewry’s World Container Index fell 3% to $2,350 per 40ft container this week, marking nine weeks of consecutive declines. The container shipping market, rocked by U.S. tariff announcements in April, saw rates surge from May to early June before dropping sharply through mid-July. The pace of decline has since slowed, signaling stabilization.

Transpacific routes weakened, with Shanghai–Los Angeles rates down 2% to $2,494 per FEU and Shanghai–New York falling 5% to $3,638 per FEU. Drewry anticipates less volatility in spot rates as the pre-tariff shipping rush subsides.

July 2025 saw U.S. container imports hit their second-highest level ever, just below May 2022’s record, driven by an 18.2% month-over-month surge, per Descartes’ analysis. China’s shipments jumped 44.4%, boosting its U.S. import share to 35.2% from 28.8% in June. “July’s surge reflects U.S. tariff policies, not just seasonal demand,” said Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy at Descartes.

However, the outlook for late 2025 is grim. Drewry’s Container Forecaster predicts a weakening supply-demand balance, with spot rates set to contract further. The National Retail Federation forecasts a 5.6% drop in U.S. import cargo volume for 2025 compared to 2024, with monthly declines of 5% in August, 19.5% in September, 18.9% in October, 21.1% in November, and 19.3% in December. November’s projected 1.71 million TEUs would be the lowest since April 2023.

Industry analyst John McCown told gCaptain, “These nonsensical tariffs and USTR ship fees are an attack on trade itself, and the coming declines will ripple through the economy.”

Key trade policy deadlines include the August 29 repeal of the de minimis exemption, the October 15 expiration of the U.S.-China tariff truce, and reciprocal tariffs impacting over 60 countries, all adding uncertainty to the market.

Source: gCaptain